I hate to pat myself on the back … but 5 days after I called the shot, the NYTimes is naming the “Gaza Action” for what it really is – Regime Change on the order of magnitude and risk of George W. Bush’s Iraq Regime Change. So this means that Israel can have deaths and wounded in Gaza reach 30, 50 or 100 times that of Israel. Why not ? Lets face it because the collateral damage of “real” regime change, no matter how much humanitarian aid Israel allows to be trucked in, is devastation of all the government and “terrorist” institutions, homes, buildings and nearby people. And because Gaza has a population of 1.5 million in on large urban area (nearly 11,000 persons per square mail) there is a lot of “nearby people”.
In situations like this I always ask my Israeli friends 3 questions starting with the reverse role question. What would Israelis be doing if Tel Aviv were being hit by fighter bombers or rockets that in 5-6 days left over 500 Israelis dead and thousands wounded? Second, when the “Gaza Action” ends for better or for worse, what will the Israeli Exit Strategy be? See here for some best wishes hints. But it could be to use Gaza once more to extract more “LebensRaum” concessions in the West Bank and control of Jerusalem? And finally, having been victims of many a Diaspora, why do Israelis have to inflict a Diaspora on the Palestinians?
Postscript: It is curious that Israel prides itself on being the only”true” Democracy in the Middle East . So it is disturbing to see that no less than Bloomberg News is measuring the “Gaza Action” as not only influencing the upcoming February 2009 elections but also designed by players to help sway voters in that election.