In our piece in this blog on Billary or Obama , I advance the notion which may very well be treated as a scientific hypotheses:
The winner of the Democratic nomination will be the winner of the Presidential election.
Here is my empirical proof:
Primary Election Turnout in 2008
| StatePrimary | Democrats | Republicans |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama – D=48.9% R=51.1% 2004=R62% | 538,264 | 562,570 |
| California – D=64.2% R=35.8% 2004=D54% | 3,972,036 | 2,215,595 |
| Georgia – D=52.4% R=47.6% 2004=R58% | 1,049,488 | 954,442 |
| Missouri – D=58.5% R=41.5% 2004=R53% | 818,577 | 581,046 |
| North Dakota – D=65.9% R=34.1% 2004=R63% | 18,856 | 9,743 |
First thing to note is that turnout as a percentage of total registered voters in each state varied quite dramatically from 40%++ in Alabama to less than 15% in North Dakota. Next lets read what is meant by Georgia – D=52.4% R=47.6% 2004=R58%:
This means that in Georgia Democrats cast 52.4% of all votes, Republicans 47.6% and in 2004 Republicans won the Presidential vote in the state with 58% of all votes cast(2004=R58%). So if the primary is any indication, Republicans will lose Georgia in November 2008 by 52% versus 48%. Now I don’t have time to do all the numbers, but as the chart consistently shows Democratic turnout in every state resulted in a pronounced shift advantage versus the 2004 Presidential election. Now unless the Democrats self destruct on a monumental scale or Republican Smear and Fear triumphs once again(not likely) – the Democrats should win the 2008 Presidential election walking away.
I am a fifth away through the numbers, and if anybody comments I will do the other 4/5ths.