In our reports Why Back Bibi Netanyahu? and Why Did Hamas Assassinate Itself on October 7 2023? there is a throbbing litany of vengeance and conflict as every sector of the Mideast wails aloud with pogroms, riots, massacres, coups, and conflicts amassing over 6,000,000 deaths from the End of the 2nd World War in 1946 to the violent crescendo of brutality screeching again across the Mid East since October 7 2023.
This is a broken record playing with sickening skritches repeated over and over again.
The Israel – Hamas ghastly LP splatter recording currently on tap is repeating the same grievance grooves and calls for retribution. The constant worry is whether spillover risks will broaden across Mid East capitals. Not lives at risk, not well-being for large populations but rather how to achieve Israeli or Hamas ends.
Hamas Ends
We have already asked the question why has Hamas chosen to assassinate itself? Here are some conjectures:
1 – the Hamas attacks clearly got out of hand when the target was collecting Israeli hostages not brutal carnage as described by the Washington Post “Hamas caught Israel’s security apparatus off-guard and overwhelmed military defenses. The attackers were able to secure their hostage numbers with ease. Surprised by the lack of resistance, the attackers turned the operation into a bloody and chaotic rampage through civilian areas”.;
2 – The intent to get Arab states such as Hezbollah in Lebanon North of Israel and Houthis in Yemen to the South has so far petered out. Foreign Affairs magazine sees the Hamas 3 front strategy as being stalled.
3 – A major lingering risk is what Iran and Iraq will do in the West as more red lines get crossed.
4 – A lingering question is how long will Gazans remain loyal to Hamas leadership safely ensconced outside Gaza. Being used as as cannon fodder during Israelis’ brutal attacks will .
5 – If Israeli attacks continue at present intensity there will be little livable Northern Gaza landscape left and who/how will it be administered?
6 – There is also the problem of 3 terror groups vying for Gazans loyalty and leadership:
a)Hamas with its top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, safely residing in Qatar;
b)Palestinian Islamic Jihad with leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, safely hiding in Lebanon and Syria;
c)Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) is a waning Marxist group getting >4% of latest vote.
So clearly, Netanyahu will not be able to wipe out Hamas, PIJ, and PFLP leadership. So the only other purpose of the Israel-Hamas war is to create a devastated, unlivable Gaza landscape, a defeated Palestinian population in both Gaza and the increasingly strife-ridden West Bank, and an ultimately poisoned Palestine to prove to Israelis and the wider World that Palestinians cannot be two-state partners with Israel.
So what do absentee leaders of Hamas, PFLP and PIJ do when the conflict ends? Gaza will be a rubble heap in the North with the South marginally livable. Gazans will be spread over Jordan, Egypt, and Israel. Will Hamas or PIJ or PFLP be able to operate in Israeli “administered” Gaza? Will new internecine treachery break out among Hamas, PIJ, PFLP, and PLO for the leftover West Bank hulk? Likely, if the past is a guide.
Israel Ends
Clearly Bibi Netanyahu has emerged as undisputed prime minister[for example, Bibi immediately rejects Biden and Blinken’s pause/curfew request yet he still manages to retain Biden’s blanket support for routing Hamas regardless of the Gazan civilian casualties]for and despite being caught off guard in the Oct 7 2023 attacks. In spite of Bibi’s reassurances to Israelis that IDF – Israeli Defense Forces and Intelligence Services would keep them protected. even given more aggressive illegal settlements and provocative intrusions on Palestinian West Bank. the could continue the fact that Hamas and PIJ attacks on is what Bibi has been working to do with his efforts to reduce Israeli judiciary
But Israel has successfully covered up over 30 years of Zionist claims to all of Judea with no valid Palestinian dual state as espoused by David Ben Gurion and a succession of Israeli leaders. The international jury is no from a rule of law perspective . Many world rallies cite the rampant the unfair division of Israel in 1948 and the current Gaza civilian casualties with 9 to 1 Palestinian deaths to Israelis.
So Netanyahu and his PR team emphasize over and over the viciousness of the Hamas attacks – there will be a ghastly video for journalists and international observers every day the Gazan deaths surge. This is a key part of equating the Hamas attackers with all Palestinians as terrorists.. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has made no attempt to stifle the rise in West Bank intimidation and deaths by Israeli settlers and militia. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has to keep his Health Minister, the far-rightist Amichay Eliyahu, , from appearing as a terrorist after suggesting dropping a nuclear bomb on Gaza and its Hamas terrorists.This abject dehumanization of Palestinations was attempted by Netanyahu in 2016 when he accused the 2nd World War Palestinian grand mufti of Jerusalem of having suggested the genocide of the Jews to Adolf Hitler. Talk about playing with terror.
So right now Israel Ends are Bibi Netanyahu Ends. He is in the best position of establishing all of Judea as Israeli. But his hold on the office of Premier is subject to his growing unpopularaity within Israel. Also his bet that will be no spillover and broadening of the conflict to Iran, Irag, Lebanon, Syria and other Arab capitals depends on the effectiveness of Anthony Blinken’s shuttle diplomacy. Finally, even with an obliterated Gaza and and cowering Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, running the leftovers will hardly match his hubris.